Barnstable Patriot
By: David Augustinho

Usually my column focuses on local issues relating to the workforce development system. I was privileged this week to hear a national authority, Dr. Edward Gordon, speak about global issues affecting the workforce. He is the author of The 2010 Meltdown which describes an impending crisis that could take place based on a number of factors.

Here are some of the statistics that he uses to make his case. Between 2010 and 2020 some 70 million baby boomers will retire from the workforce in the U.S. and only 40 million workers will replace them. The U.S. is not the only country that will experience this type of aging workforce. Germany, which is the world’s third largest economy, will have over half of its workforce over age 65 by 2050 (today it is about one-fourth over 65). Dr. Gordon projects that in Germany the workforce will decline from the 40 million workers today to only 30 million workers in 2050. Russia and even China will be experiencing similar drops in their available workforce as projected by the United Nations. And while some of these projections go out to the year 2050, the trends are already well under way.

Most of the projections available point to staggering shortages in high-skill technology positions, what we refer to as knowledge workers. Projections for the U.S. are that there will be a shortage of 17,000,000 knowledge workers by 2020. And yes, the decline has already started to be felt. That is why Bill Gates is sounding an alarm to encourage our federal lawmakers to ease restrictions on H1B visa workers, highly skilled foreign workers imported to meet our shortfall. Gates is also calling for our lawmakers to grant expedited citizenship for these imported workers to help keep them in the U.S. At one point many of them were highly interested in staying in the U.S., but now technology worker shortages are becoming extensive in their countries, as many of these countries develop more and more technology positions themselves.

One of the underlying factors that Dr. Gordon refers to as exacerbating the difficulties being faced in the United States is a lack of focus in our education system as well as in our training efforts. In education the U.S. is falling behind other nations in how we are preparing our emerging workforce. According to 2003 rankings of nations the U.S. placed 24th in math, 15th in reading, and 19th in science education, well behind Finland, South Korea, Japan, and Canada. And the slide in our educational attainment has been going on for some time. For example, our 55- to 64-year-old population was 1st in the world in high school graduation rates. Our 34- to 44- year-old age group falls to 5th, and our 25- to 34-year-olds rank only 9th in the world.

Now that is most of the bad news: declining populations, especially affecting the number of available workers; an inexorably aging population worldwide; and in the U.S. increasingly slipping educational attainment. Is there no good news on the horizon?

Well, yes and no. Dr. Gordon points to education as the great hope to be able to overcome some of these factors –  not only in our K-12 and higher ed systems, but in a variety of settings that can help to transform the lives and careers of our workers. And this is where the workforce development system plays a role. As we look at labor shortages in many occupations we need to do a better job of preparing individuals to shift their career focus to meet employers’ needs. We need to identify individuals who are currently excluded from technology positions and upgrade their skills. Dr. Gordon refers to these individuals as Techno-Peasants and estimates that they comprise almost 50 percent of our current workforce. Life-long learning principles will need to be a larger part of our national landscape to cope with these needed changes.

Business can help by instituting policies that encourage retaining current workers well past their projected retirement age. Of course the Cape and Islands Workforce Investment Board is at the forefront of this activity, having started our 55+ program a few years ago. We recognized the importance of meeting local business needs with this “non-traditional” source of human capital. As workers become more scarce businesses will turn to other groups currently excluded from many positions, individuals with various disabilities for example, to meet their growing need to fill existing positions.

Of course I have greatly simplified Dr. Gordon’s analysis. Many other factors enter into the equation. I encourage you to read his book for a richer presentation of his ideas.